New data from Metrostudy indicates further strengthening of the U.S. housing market. In this article from Builder, Hanley Wood’s Charlotte O’Malley analyzes the data, noting that the housing market as a whole is in a much better spot than it was a year ago, and predicting a continuation of the year-over-year growth trend.
Our October collection of new home and building lot demand in Metrostudy’s 36 markets indicates that typical seasonal decline continues in the majority of markets, but inventory in the pipeline appears stable, and the pace of starts continues to climb. Despite the expected seasonal decline, 66% of regional directors recorded a higher score for new-home demand in October 2015 than in October 2014, and only eight markets decreased year over year. Houston, Raleigh-Durham, San Diego, and Southern California were among the eight markets reporting a decrease, a sign that other markets are now catching up in the recovery given that those four markets have been in the top half of our scale for the past year, while other markets have wavered at the mid-point.
Similar to the notion that seasonal slowdown will be a passing storm weathered by spring, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 97.6 in October following a reading of 102.6 in September. However, the share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months (which puts us at the start of spring selling season) rose 1.5% month over month to 6.3%—a good sign for the future.
The Phoenix-Tucson market has made the biggest year-over-year gains in our new home demand index, jumping from a score of 3 in October 2014 to a 7 this October.
Although Seattle was never in limbo, new-home demand in that region has increased significantly year over year as well, jumping from a score of 7 to 10.
Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth have been markets to beat during the recovery, but commentary from our regional directors indicate that they’re still trying to catch up after a spring selling season riddled with horrible weather.
